Bayesian inference on volatility in the presence of infinite jump activity and microstructure noise
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Forecasting return volatility in the presence of microstructure noise
Measuring and forecasting volatility of asset returns is very important for asset trading and risk management. There are various forms of volatility estimates, including implied volatility, realized volatility and volatility assumed under stochastic volatility models and GARCH models. Research has shown that these different methods are closely related but have different perspectives, strengths ...
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The Hansen-Lunde (HL) research program is generally first-rate, displaying a rare blend of theoretical prowess and applied sense. The present paper is no exception. In a major theoretical advance, HL allow for correlation between microstructure (MS) noise and latent price. (I prefer “latent price” to terms such as “efficient price” or “true price,” which carry lots of excess baggage.) In a para...
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The notion of realized volatility as a model-free measurement of the quadratic variation of the underlying log price process loses its asymptotic validity in the presence of market microstructure noise. Should microstructure contaminations be present, the summing of an increasing number of squared return data (as in the definition of the realized volatility estimator) simply entails increasing ...
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There are two variance components embedded in the returns constructed using high-frequency asset prices: the time-varying variance of the unobservable efficient returns that would prevail in a frictionless economy and the variance of the equally unobservable microstructure noise. Using sample moments of high-frequency return data recorded at different frequencies, we provide a simple and robust...
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We propose a new concept of modulated bipower variation for diffusion models with microstructure noise. We show that this method provides simple estimates for such important quantities as integrated volatility or integrated quarticity. Under mild conditions the consistency of modulated bipower variation is proven. Under further assumptions we prove stable convergence of our estimates with the o...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Electronic Journal of Statistics
سال: 2021
ISSN: 1935-7524
DOI: 10.1214/20-ejs1794